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Latest intelligence on EU affairs, policy developments, and political dynamics.

Europe Finally Names Its Team. The Hard Part Starts Monday.
Geopolitics

Europe Finally Names Its Team. The Hard Part Starts Monday.

EU leaders agreed in Dublin on Friday that Europe will be represented in Ukraine peace talks by the EU institutions plus France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK, with national security advisers doing the negotiating. It ends a week of open disagreement about who speaks for Europe. It settles very little about what Europe will say.

Brussels Is Writing Its 22nd Russia Package, and This Time the Trigger Is Arson and Drones
Geopolitics

Brussels Is Writing Its 22nd Russia Package, and This Time the Trigger Is Arson and Drones

Ambassadors agreed on Wednesday to add 145 individuals and entities to the Russia sanctions list, to be signed off by foreign ministers on 16 November. A second package of more than a hundred measures targeting banks, energy firms and shadow-fleet tankers is being drafted for December, and EU officials are now linking it openly to sabotage and drone incursions on European soil.

Europe Has a Seat at the Table Now. It Still Cannot Agree Who Sits In It
Geopolitics

Europe Has a Seat at the Table Now. It Still Cannot Agree Who Sits In It

Washington told the Europeans on Thursday that they will be in the room for the next round of Ukraine talks. Within hours, the leaders gathered in Dublin had demonstrated why that concession may be worth less than it looks: Estonia wants Costa and Kallas, France and Germany want the E3, and several prime ministers want to go themselves.

The EU Signs Off Its Last Normal Budget: €199.7 Billion, and a Defence Line of €3.1 Billion
EU Institutions

The EU Signs Off Its Last Normal Budget: €199.7 Billion, and a Defence Line of €3.1 Billion

Council and Parliament closed the 2027 budget on Tuesday night: €199.71 billion in commitments, €211.5 billion in payments, €4 billion in grants for Ukraine and €3.08 billion for security and defence. It is the final annual budget of the 2021-2027 framework, and the numbers already read like the opening bid in the fight over the next one.

The EU Opens a Training Mission Office Inside Ukraine, and Extends the Mission to 2028
Defence & Security

The EU Opens a Training Mission Office Inside Ukraine, and Extends the Mission to 2028

The Council extended EUMAM Ukraine until 15 November 2028 with almost €300 million, and for the first time gave the mission a standing representation on Ukrainian territory. The training still happens in Poland and Germany. What changes is who decides the curriculum.

Le Pen Has a Second Target in Brussels: Kaja Kallas and the EU's Diplomatic Service
EU Institutions

Le Pen Has a Second Target in Brussels: Kaja Kallas and the EU's Diplomatic Service

Marine Le Pen wants to dismantle or sharply reduce the European External Action Service if she wins the 2027 French presidency, according to four National Rally officials. The front-runner's plan would turn the EU's 100-plus delegations and 5,200 staff into collateral damage in her fight with Ursula von der Leyen.

Days After the Blue Wave, G7 Allies Get Their First Look at Trump's America
Geopolitics & Security

Days After the Blue Wave, G7 Allies Get Their First Look at Trump's America

G7 foreign ministers meet in Paris on Monday and Tuesday, moved at short notice from Marseille for security reasons after weeks of French protests. It is Marco Rubio's first appearance before allies since the Democrats took both chambers of Congress, and the first chance for Europe to test whether a wounded president changes course on Ukraine.

Four Countries Told to Carry the Migrant Caseload, and Fifteen Warned They Are Next
EU Institutions

Four Countries Told to Carry the Migrant Caseload, and Fifteen Warned They Are Next

The Commission's second Annual Migration Management Cycle names Greece, Cyprus, Italy and Spain as under migratory pressure and eligible for the Solidarity Pool, puts fifteen member states at risk, and lists six facing a significant situation that can seek deductions. The 2027 pool's size is not public. The Council decides.

2,800 Troops, 11 Nations, No Americans: Europe Rehearses the Army It Would Send to Ukraine
Defense & Security

2,800 Troops, 11 Nations, No Americans: Europe Rehearses the Army It Would Send to Ukraine

Britain and France will lead KOALICJA 26.2 from 9 to 22 November, bringing 2,800 troops from 11 countries to Poland, France and Turkey to test how to move, protect and supply the Multinational Force-Ukraine. US troops will not take part. The drills begin the day before US, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meet in Abu Dhabi.

Five Capitals Tell Brussels to Hurry Up and Let Britain Back Into the Electricity Market
Energy

Five Capitals Tell Brussels to Hurry Up and Let Britain Back Into the Electricity Market

Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Luxembourg have written to von der Leyen and Costa urging them to use the 20 November summit to set a path to concluding talks on UK participation in the EU's internal electricity market. The talks will not finish by the summit, and the sticking point is money: London would have to contribute to EU cohesion funds.

Six Dead in Kraków: A Gunman, a Far-Right Ideology and a Square Full of Tourists
Security

Six Dead in Kraków: A Gunman, a Far-Right Ideology and a Square Full of Tourists

A 25-year-old Polish man drove into Kraków's main market square on Saturday afternoon and opened fire with an automatic weapon, killing six people including a British citizen and wounding 16. Three more bodies, likely family members, were found at his home. The interior minister says he held 'ultra-nationalistic' views. Poland begins two days of mourning.

Merz Wants European Stockpiles of Critical Raw Materials, and He Did Not Say Who Pays
Trade & Industry

Merz Wants European Stockpiles of Critical Raw Materials, and He Did Not Say Who Pays

Speaking at an economic conference in Berlin on 5 November, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for strategic reserves of critical raw materials at European level, alongside supplier diversification and stronger recycling. He specified neither which minerals, nor volumes, nor financing, and the Commission is already building its own instrument.

Meloni Tells Brussels It Is 'All Over the Place' on Ukraine and Demands One Voice
Geopolitics

Meloni Tells Brussels It Is 'All Over the Place' on Ukraine and Demands One Voice

In a letter to European Council President Antonio Costa, Giorgia Meloni said overlapping formats from Miami to Oslo are making Europe less credible and asked for EU unity on Ukraine to be added to next week's Dublin agenda. Costa replied that EU interests must be represented by its institutions, but no envoy has been named.

Brussels Puts a Price on Peace: E3, Kyiv and Washington Draft Ukraine's Post-War Economy
Geopolitics & Security

Brussels Puts a Price on Peace: E3, Kyiv and Washington Draft Ukraine's Post-War Economy

The Commission convened Germany, France, the UK, Ukraine, the US, NATO and the World Bank on 4 November to work through scenarios for Ukraine's post-war economy. It is the first time the reconstruction track has been merged with the peace talks, days before Abu Dhabi.

Europe's Greens Lose the Car: ENVI Votes to Cut the 2035 Target to 87.5%
Energy & Climate

Europe's Greens Lose the Car: ENVI Votes to Cut the 2035 Target to 87.5%

The European Parliament's environment committee voted 48 to 30 to lower the 2035 fleet target from 100% to 87.5%, broaden the definition of a zero-emission vehicle to include renewable fuels, and hand credits to EU-made low-carbon steel. The December plenary now decides whether the combustion engine survives in law.