The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Europe's Second Energy Shock in Five Years

The ceasefire between the US and Iran came just in time. But for Europe's energy markets, 'just in time' may already be too late.

The Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which 21% of the world's traded oil passes — saw reduced shipping flows during the Iran conflict. For Europe, the impact was immediate and compound: oil prices spiked, refined product shortages emerged, and airlines began signalling fuel supply concerns.

The Scale of Dependence

The European Union is less dependent on Middle Eastern crude than it was in the 1970s. But the numbers are still stark: 40% of Europe's refined petroleum products — jet fuel, diesel, heating oil — come through the Strait of Hormuz or its adjacent supply chains.

The war in Iran reduced that flow by an estimated 20-30% for several weeks. Refineries across Europe began rationing. Aviation fuel became scarce. By mid-April, airports across the continent were reporting 'increasing concerns' about jet fuel availability.

Why This Time Is Different

The last major energy shock — Ukraine 2022 — was met with emergency measures: emergency liquified natural gas shipments, production cuts, energy rationing. Europe survived, but the cost was enormous: €350 billion in emergency spending, millions facing fuel poverty.

This crisis hits a different supply chain. It's not natural gas (which Europe diversified away from). It's refined products, which are harder to substitute quickly and more critical to transport and aviation.

The ceasefire helps, but damaged infrastructure in the Gulf and ongoing shipping insurance concerns mean the disruption will linger. Officials estimate 6-8 weeks before full normalized flows resume.

Europe's luck on energy shocks is running out. The next one won't be a spike — it will be a sustained choke.